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The European Central Bank announced its easy-money exit strategy one year ago, but twelve months on, the world couldn't look more different. With dovish policy signals being broadcast across the globe, the ECB's Governing Council meeting in Vilnius will be the event of the day. Traders are now betting on a cut in the next year, only months after a raise had been the consensus, while hopes are high for more details on what the central bank's renewed TLTRO program will look like. "The conceivable range for the spread (for the negative rate) is between 0 bps and -40 bps," said Natixis's Dirk Schumacher. "A small spread would imply that the new TLTROs are predominantly meant to provide a backstop. A high spread would signal that the ECB sees a need to stimulate bank lending."