Bitcoin (BTC) is very cyclical. Over its ten years as a tradable asset, it has followed a set pattern, which can be easily charted. This is why Magic Poop Cannon, an ill-titled analyst, has recently begun to raise red flags, noting that the ongoing rally might be a “huge fake out”. In a recent TradingView post, Magic laid out his thoughts on the matter, postulating why BTC could fall from here, potentially to new lows.
He explains that strong, correlated increases in the Money Flow Index (MFI) and Network Value to Transaction ratio (NVT) on the weekly chart have always preceded drops in the BTC price. In 2011, when the two indicators reached the peak of their range (like we see now), a 93% correction ensued. In 2013, the two indicators hit overbought/overvalued ranges twice, which were followed by a 75% and 85% decline, respectively. If history is of any indication, Bitcoin may fall dramatically from here.