I live on the east coast of Florida, so tracking how hurricanes move is as important as tracking how stocks move. I am always amazed by how accurately the weather models predict a hurricane’s volatile travel path over time. But, I am also puzzled by why meteorologists can forecast a constantly changing hurricane path but Wall Street analysts can only forecast a fixed target price to be hit sometime in the next 12 months.
With my limited understanding of weather models, I surmise that the model first identifies the key factors which affect the hurricane’s strength (i.e., water temperature) and path (i.e., nearby high/low pressures), and then forecast where these factors will be in the near future. Using the forecast paths of these factors, the future hurricane strength and the travel route can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In this post, I will use the same approach to forecast both the future price target and its time path for shares of Micron Technology (NYSE: MU) for the period between April 2019 and August 2021.