2019 - Disruption, Volatility And Opportunity10

The preceding graphic is central to my social cycle model and its influence on financial and economic market behavior in 2019. If you believe, as I do, in cyclical behavior, it's difficult to argue that we've experienced social polarization to an elevated degree. Passage through the current wintry season suggests turbulent markets ahead. What's been most telling is the polarity's extent the last few years despite many economic statistics suggesting robustness, sort of like the fight before the fight.

The genesis of this polarity might extend to the year 2000. I argued in one of my books that a very defined moment occurred in 2009 with the Tea Party demonstrations and shortly thereafter with the Occupy Wall Street event. Since that time, public discourse became, well, toxic. Perhaps not coincidentally, "toxic" was the Oxford dictionary word of the year in 2018. There's much to be gleaned about social mood from the word of the year.

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